by Admin | 15 May 2020 | Branching process modelling, Equity and at-risk communities
Abstract We use a stochastic branching process model, structured by age and level of healthcare access, to look at the heterogeneous spread of Covid-19 within a population. We examine the effect of control scenarios targeted at particular groups, such as school...
by Admin | 24 Apr 2020 | Branching process modelling
An Aotearoa New Zealand-specific interactive epidemic simulation app developed by Dr Audrey Lustig, Associate Investigator at Te Pūnaha Matatini, and hosted by the University of Auckland’s Centre for eResearch, has just been released. Called the Covid-19 Take Control...
by Admin | 22 Apr 2020 | Branching process modelling
Abstract The effective reproduction number, Reff, is an important measure of transmission potential in the modelling of epidemics. It measures the average number of people that will be infected by a single contagious individual. A value of Reff > 1 suggests that an...
by Admin | 17 Apr 2020 | Branching process modelling, Equity and at-risk communities
Abstract There is limited evidence as to how clinical outcomes of Covid-19 including fatality rates may vary by ethnicity. We aim to estimate inequities in infection fatality rates (IFR) in New Zealand by ethnicity. We combine existing demographic and health data for...
by Admin | 9 Apr 2020 | Branching process modelling
Abstract While case numbers remain low, population-wide control methods, combined with efficient tracing, testing, and case isolation, offer the opportunity for Aotearoa New Zealand to contain and eliminate Covid-19. We use a stochastic model to investigate...
by Admin | 25 Mar 2020 | Branching process modelling
Abstract A standard SEIR-type compartment model, parameterised for Aotearoa New Zealand, was used to simulate the spread of Covid-19 and to test the effectiveness of various control strategies. Control aims can be broadly categorised as either suppression or...
