by Admin | 27 Oct 2021 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary We use a branching process model to simulate the Auckland August 2021 outbreak through to early January 2022, including the effects of increasing vaccine coverage by age group and time. Based on vaccination data and bookings for the Auckland metro...
by Admin | 23 Sep 2021 | Branching process modelling
Updated modelling exploring how high rates of vaccine coverage might reduce the health burden from COVID-19 if combined with moderate public health measures to reduce transmission of the virus. Aotearoa New Zealand is on track to vaccinate upwards of 80% of those aged...
by Admin | 7 Sep 2021 | Branching process modelling
Here are two technical reports in which we consider the epidemic course for the August 2021 cluster, detected on 17 August in Auckland, following the shift to Alert Level 4 restrictions in New Zealand, using a stochastic branching process model. On 17 August 2021 a...
by Admin | 30 Jun 2021 | Branching process modelling
We present two implementations of an age-structured model for Covid-19 spread in Aotearoa New Zealand with a partially vaccinated population. The first is a deterministic SEIR model, useful for considering population-level dynamics and questions about population...
by Admin | 22 Mar 2021 | Branching process modelling
Throughout 2020 and the first part of 2021, Australia and New Zealand have followed a Covid-19 elimination strategy. Both countries require overseas arrivals to quarantine in government-managed facilities at the border. In both countries, community outbreaks of...
by Admin | 22 Feb 2021 | Branching process modelling
Between February and May 2020, Aotearoa New Zealand recorded 1504 cases of Covid-19 before eliminating community transmission of the virus in June 2020. During this period, a series of control measures were used including population-wide interventions implemented via...
